Why the US Withdrawal from Afghanistan Marked a Turning Point

• For nearly two decades, much of US–Pakistan cooperation revolved around Afghanistan: support for Afghan reconstruction, counter‑insurgency, supply routes, intelligence sharing, and managing militant networks. After US troops withdrew, that central pillar of cooperation collapsed.

• Without the US “interest” in Afghanistan, Washington’s strategic focus shifted — especially given rising US competition with China and expanding US–India engagement.

• The new dynamics left Islamabad uncertain of Washington’s intentions, and raised hard questions inside US establishment about the utility and reliability of Pakistan as a partner.

This shift triggered a broader reevaluation of bilateral relations — and with it, a rising tide of mistrust.

 Core Issues & Areas of Mistrust Post‑Withdrawal

1. Strategic Realignment: US Tilt toward India & China Rivalry

• The US increasingly sees India as a strategic partner in countering China. This undermines Pakistan’s traditional role as a US strategic asset in South Asia.

• Pakistan’s growing closeness to China (via China–Pakistan Economic Corridor – CPEC, deeper defense and economic cooperation) further erodes American trust. Washington perceives Islamabad as part of China’s sphere.

• Consequently, strategic cooperation has shrunk, and the US no longer sees compelling interest in Pakistan, especially given shrinking counter‑terrorism, logistic, or operational incentives.

2. Security, Terrorism and Border Instability

• After US withdrawal, Afghanistan became unstable — the return of the Taliban government and a security vacuum emboldened militant networks. That situation increased security risks for Pakistan. Islamabad views the instability and rising insurgency as partly a by‑product of Washington’s abrupt exit.

• From Washington’s side, absence of a cooperative mandate means less incentive to finance or support Pakistan’s counter‑terrorism efforts, or to coordinate regionally, creating friction.

3. Decline in Aid, Military Assistance and Economic Incentives

• Historically, US aid — both military and economic — was a key pillar of bilateral ties. Post‑withdrawal, this financial incentive has largely disappeared, or become much weaker, reducing leverage and the motivation for close cooperation.

• Multilateral and bilateral economic priorities have shifted. Pakistan’s economic crisis and instability make it less attractive for Western investment and cooperation under US influence.

4. Diplomatic and Trust Deficit: Legacy of “Double‑Game” Suspicions

• During the 20-year Afghan war, US repeatedly accused Pakistan of playing a “double game”: publicly supporting counter‑terrorism, while allegedly maintaining ties to certain militant groups for strategic depth in Afghanistan. With US gone, such allegations have gained renewed credibility among many in Washington.

• There is growing weariness in Washington over intelligence sharing and reliability. Some US officials now publicly label Pakistan’s missile programme and defense developments as potential “threats,” signaling a shift from “ally” to “strategic challenge.”

• The US’s labeling of Pakistan’s missile/balistic‑missile program as an “emerging threat” shows deep erosion of trust, affecting defense cooperation and regional security cooperation.

5. Loss of Strategic Relevance and Decline of Formal Frameworks

• Previous bilateral mechanisms (strategic dialogue, defense cooperation frameworks) have not been revived. There’s little indication that Washington sees value in renewing formal ties.

• US foreign policy’s pivot to Indo‑Pacific and its rivalry with China means Pakistan — now closely aligned with China — no longer fits neatly into US strategic architecture.

 Impact of These Issues on Pakistan–US Relations & Regional Stability

• Reduced Bilateral Engagement: Without shared Afghan‑theatre interests or aid incentives, Pakistan–US relations have become transactional and shallow. Strategic consultation is rare and limited.

• Security Vacuum & Instability: The lack of structured US–Pakistan cooperation has complicated efforts to manage Afghan spill‑over, terrorism, refugee flows, and cross‑border militancy. Pakistan is burdened with regional instability largely unaddressed by Washington.

• Strategic Isolation: Pakistan increasingly finds itself isolated from former allies; growing strategic alignment with China draws US suspicion further.

• Domestic Backlash & Rise of Anti‑American Sentiment: The perception that the US “abandoned” Pakistan post‑withdrawal — leaving it to deal with Afghan fallout — fuels public and elite resentment.

• Economic Pressure: Loss of military/economic aid deteriorates budgetary support; Pakistan must now seek alternatives (e.g. China, Gulf, IMF), but these often lack the same strategic cushion.

 Why This Phase Is More Dangerous Than Post‑Soviet Afghan Withdrawal (1989)

Many analysts draw parallels between the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the Soviet withdrawal in 1989 — both triggered instability. But today’s global context is much different:

• The US–China rivalry has shifted American strategic attention away from South Asia; Pakistan is now viewed through the prism of China, not terrorism.

• Regional geopolitics involve complicated triangular dynamics (US, China, India) — Pakistan may no longer be seen as “indispensable.”

• The proliferation of advanced military technology (missiles, drones) raises Washington’s security concerns, further eroding trust.

• Domestic pressures in US (war fatigue, focus on Ukraine/Europe, Indo‑Pacific) mean reduced appetite for involvement in Pakistan or Afghanistan.

Conclusion: Relations on Edge, But Not Broken

• The US withdrawal from Afghanistan triggered a fundamental reorientation of US–Pakistan relations.

• What was once a strategic partnership has now degenerated into a relationship of pragmatism, mistrust, and limited cooperation.

• The withdrawal exposed diverging interests, strategic mismatches, and trust deficits — all of which have not been addressed.

Yet — this does not mean all hope is lost. There remain areas for limited cooperation:

• Pakistan’s role as logistics/ transit route for Afghan‑region humanitarian and development aid.

• Counter‑terrorism — if Pakistan is willing and transparent on its security posture.

• Trade and economic ties, especially with a pragmatically reset US foreign policy. Recent signs (military‑to‑civil engagement, diplomacy) show cautious interest.

But for U.S.–Pakistan relations to rebound to pre‑2021 levels — or close to them — serious strategic realignment, transparency, and mutual reassurances will be required.